Amnesty is not the answer? Perhaps,a means to the solution? It will come with government’s development of the region, and a continuous process- but to stop when? When the oil is finished? Despite only about 10% of the United State’s oil needs are supplied by Nigeria, in theory, the United States alone will exhaust Nigeria’s oil reserve in just seven years! We cannot continue like this, under pain, while a few luxuriate in affluence with looted (cheap) oil wealth and now with free funds in name of amnesty. Now is the time to make our voices generate a vision before it’s too late. There is need   to disbelieve the over 20 billion barrels of oil reserve and the promise that at our current level of production, we will produce oil for the next 30 years. The “proven” oil mirage (reserve) might be nothing but fantasy. These calculations, prepared of course not by Nigeria or Nigerians, could have been notoriously inaccurate, not when we know that oil business is intensively competitive and reserve data are treated highly confidential by oil producing countries. For example, for what ever reason, the USGS publication in 1974 reported over 400 billion barrels of recoverable oil to be found in the offshore margin of the US, progressive experts differed and had rejected this report by over 2000 percent, yes 2000 %( not 200%).  One needs to be skeptical nowadays, especially in statistics about oil, and more especially on developing countries whenever the word “average” or “estimate” are used, which of the common kinds of average it is-mean, median, or mode. They are all measure of average and a great tool to legally mislead the populace.

It is encouraging to compare figure sometimes, Nigerian oil and gas industry is, as of today a century old, and inevitably the backbone of the Nigerian economy, accounting for majority of the total foreign exchange revenue. According to a World Bank study, 80% of Nigeria’s oil money which has been estimated to be over $300 billion goes to only 1% of the population. The oil has become a curse to the remaining 99% Nigerians, and sedated them so stubbornly, that they have refused to act, cry, fight for diversification of the economy. The richest nations in the world today are not oil dependent, for example, if California were a separate nation, it would be world’s 12th richest nation just with serious dependency on agriculture. Nobody, especially the Niger Delta, should be deceived about so call proven probable reserve, practically unknown. Okay, lets pretend its real, blindly, we should still be mindful of the rate at which it will be exhausted. It will quickly dry up if it’s to meet the unprecedented increase in oil demand world wide. The world population will double in the next thirty years, while oil demand will double in the next eight years! Well, the joy and gain of this scenario is that when the oil is finished, Nigerians leaders and politicians will then know there is nothing to steal and it might make politics less lucrative for criminals, militancy an history and could usher in decent people into government.

Also, Niger Delta should note that the world, all of a sudden is very serious about alternative energy, the need to move towards electric, hybrid, and hydrogen car. However, in solidarity with Niger delta and  Nigeria, I will argue, just like many schools of thought, that alternative energy will only begin to its first lap in 2100. First, the big automakers have abandoned the electric idea, hybrid is good for internal combustion only, and hydrogen is considered very expensive. Also, hydrogen for example will require both new cars and new fueling facilities, and the most worrisome is that hydrogen is difficult to store and expensive to produce. It is possible to state that while the world needs alternative energy, Nigeria needs alternative source of income.

Who can fool who? The United State’s oil and gas reserve, once  thought inexhaustible is finishing (maybe not, perhaps hibernating?), any way gone are the days it was supplying oil needs of the western countries. How much oil and gas reserves are ‘proven’ in the US? Any (un)official idea? Top-secret?  There might be several reasons, but my personal speculation regarding this is a fort-alibi  to  keep its reserve secret and for subsequent domestic use in case of emergency when Niger-Delta’s 10% supply runs out, before others 90%. In addition, it is insane to spend billions of dollars in exploring or drilling oil, when you can import cheap oil. Shrouded in mystery, prior studies have criticized how the United States stores over 1 billion barrels of oil supply in her Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) that could last her for domestic use for over two months, if not to manipulate international price? Contrary to expectations, Nigeria supplies only about 10% of the United State’s oil, which could be assessed considering America’s emission of carbon dioxide which is twice that of Japan, over fifty times of Nigeria’s’ and almost two thousand times that of Chad. If they continue at present rate of consumption, Nigeria’s oil reserve will be finished by only the US in seven years! Not surprised when Margaret in 1964 once said that: ‘‘Oil today, to a great extent is the weapon of international arbitration. Oil today is becoming to hold the world’s purse-strings and therefore the world’s will to war. It can perhaps on occasion buy and sell kings; it can make and unmake presidents.” She is not a prophet, but the US is aware that every empire disappear in two century, hence the need to hold-on as the worldhead. Where are Greece, Egypt, Rome and Assyria in world economy today, once mighty and in wealth? The world’s economy is now being dominated by the once so called third world nations like china, Japan and India, and now with an unprecedented increase in oil demand.